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PAXG Liquidation Heatmap (Estimated)

An estimated liquidation heatmap for PAX Gold (PAXG), modelled from open interest changes on Binance, Bybit, Hyperliquid, Bitget, Gate, HTX, MEXC, KuCoin, Aster. Right now the nearest modelled PAXG long cluster is at $4,099 (-0.75%) and the nearest short cluster at $4,181.6 (+1.25%); about $3.52M of longs and $3.29M of shorts are modelled within ±5% of the $4,130 price. Brighter cells mean more modelled liquidations at that price at that time, from positions opened in the chosen window; levels disappear once the price trades through them. For real positions instead of a model, see the PAXG liquidation map on Hyperliquid.

The model places $10.72M of long and $12.80M of short liquidation levels for PAXG from positions opened in the last 3 days (all leverage). Within 10% of the 4,130 price: about $6.98M of longs below and $6.82M of shorts above. The densest modelled clusters are longs near 4,099 (-0.75%) and shorts near 4,202.3 (+1.75%).

Model est-1.0+hl-2026-09-27All leverage · last 3 daysOpen interest $126.46MAs of 00:17 UTC

This is a model estimate for all tracked exchanges, not real positions. The PAXG liquidation map on Hyperliquid shows the real liquidation prices of tracked Hyperliquid wallets instead.

Long levelswithin −10%
$6.98M
densest near 4,099
Short levelswithin +10%
$6.82M
densest near 4,202.3
Modelled liquidationslast 3 days
$1.28M
exchanges reported $298K
Open interestall exchanges
$126.46M
$10.72M long · $12.80M short levels

PAXG liquidation heatmap · 3 days

Model est-1.0+hl-2026-09-27 · All leverage · positions opened in the last 3 days · estimate, not exchange data.
Relative intensity (≈ modelled USD) Candles: price across exchanges · dashed: last price

See the same levels as bars at the current price on the PAXG liquidation map.

Densest long liquidation levels

below 4,130
PriceDistance≈ Modelled
4,088.7–4,109.4-0.75%$603K
4,068.1–4,088.7-1.25%$531K
4,047.4–4,068.1-1.75%$409K
3,861.6–3,882.2-6.25%$394K
3,882.2–3,902.9-5.75%$393K

Densest short liquidation levels

above 4,130
PriceDistance≈ Modelled
4,192–4,212.6+1.75%$535K
4,212.6–4,233.3+2.25%$439K
4,171.3–4,192+1.25%$404K
4,233.3–4,253.9+2.75%$392K
4,501.7–4,522.4+9.25%$389K

Modelled liquidations near the price

All leverage · last 3 days
Price moveLongs liquidated (price falls)Shorts liquidated (price rises)
±2%$1.74M$1.18M
±5%$3.52M$3.29M
±10%$6.98M$6.82M

How this estimate is made

Model est-1.0+hl-2026-09-27

Inputs are the open interest, prices and volume this site records from Binance, Bybit, Hyperliquid, Bitget, Gate, HTX, MEXC, KuCoin, Aster. Every rise in open interest is booked as a new long and a new short at the period's volume-weighted price; falls in open interest close positions proportionally; positions also decay with a multi-day half-life; and a level is removed once the price trades through it (those are the "modelled liquidations"). Liquidation prices are spread over this distance-from-entry distribution, measured on real Hyperliquid positions:

Liquidation distance from entryShare of new positions
0% – 2%12.0%
2% – 5%7.0%
5% – 10%20.0%
10% – 20%18.0%
20% – 50%17.0%

Known limits: prices are last-trade bars averaged across exchanges, not mark prices; opens and closes inside one open-interest snapshot (5 minutes on Binance) cancel out; one distribution is used for every coin and both sides. USD values are "≈ modelled", best read as relative intensity. Full method and a daily accuracy scoreboard against real liquidations: liquidation heatmap methodology. Estimates may be materially wrong; not financial advice.

PAXG liquidation heatmap FAQ

Is this PAX Gold liquidation heatmap real data?

No, it is a model estimate. Exchanges do not publish where their users' positions would be liquidated, so every liquidation heatmap for Binance or Bybit (including the well-known ones) is a model. This one starts from real data: the open interest changes, prices and trading volume this site records from the exchanges' public APIs. Actual liquidations are usually lower, because most positions are closed long before they are liquidated.

How is it calculated?

Every rise in open interest is a new long and a new short, entered at that period's volume-weighted price. The model spreads their liquidation prices over a distance-to-liquidation distribution measured on real Hyperliquid positions (74.0% of new positions within 50% of entry; the rest are too far away or can't be liquidated). Falls in open interest close positions proportionally, positions also decay with a 5-day half-life, and a level is removed once the price trades through it. The model version on the chart says which formula and distribution were used.

What do the ranges and the ≥25× view mean?

The range is the replay window: the map shows positions opened in the last 12 hours to 30 days. All leverage uses the whole distribution; High leverage (≥25×) keeps only positions liquidated within 4% of their entry, the short-term levels that get hit first.

How is this different from the Hyperliquid liquidation map?

Hyperliquid is an on-chain exchange, so its positions and their liquidation prices are public. The PAXG liquidation map on Hyperliquid adds up the real positions of tracked wallets on Hyperliquid only. This page is an estimate for all tracked exchanges together, Binance, Bybit and Hyperliquid included. Use both: where they agree, the level is more likely real.

Can I trade on it?

Treat it as context, not a signal. Clusters show where forced closes may bunch up if the price gets there; they don't predict that it will. Nothing here is financial advice, estimates may be materially wrong, and derivatives trading can lose more than your deposit.