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TAO Whale vs Retail Delta

The TAO whale vs retail delta: the share of top traders' TAO position that is long minus the share of all accounts that are long, in percentage points. The chart runs back to 2020 on Binance and 2023 on Gate. Below it: where today's reading ranks in the past 30 days and year, and what price did after the year's most extreme readings.

TAO whales are 12.3 pp more long than retail, the 66th percentile of the past year (Binance top traders' positions 76.3% long vs 64.0% of all accounts). The delta is up 7.1 pp in 24 hours, at the 31st percentile of the past 30 days. In the past year it ranged from -8.4 pp (6 Mar 2026) to +26.5 pp (2 Sep 2026). After the top 5% of hourly readings (above +18.4 pp), TAO was higher 7 days later 83% of the time, median +12.8%, over 438 readings on 36 days. That describes the past and is not a trading signal.

Binance top traders vs all accounts8,760 hourly readings in the past yearAs of 14:00 UTC

TAO whale vs retail Binance
+12.3 pp
top traders 76.3% longaccounts 64.0%
Percentile
66th of 1y
31st of the past 30 days24h change +7.1 pp
1-year range
-8.4 to +26.5
low 6 Mar 2026high 2 Sep 2026
Other exchange
-23.1 pp on Gate
same measure, Gate's own traders

TAO top traders vs all accounts

Top trader positions long minus accounts long, pp

Chart: TradingView Lightweight Charts™

What TAO did after extreme readings

8760 hourly readings in the past year
Readings Hours (days) 24h median 24h hit rate 7d median 7d hit rate
Top 5%: whales most long vs retail 438 (36) +3.9% n=438 66% +12.8% n=438 83%
Bottom 5%: whales least long vs retail 438 (34) +2.0% n=438 34% +8.8% n=438 26%

Top 5%: readings of +18.4 pp or more; bottom 5%: -2.0 pp or less. A hit is a rise after the top 5% (whales leaned long) and a fall after the bottom 5%. For comparison, across every hourly reading TAO was higher 24 hours later 45% of the time (median -0.4%, n=8721) and 7 days later 48% (median -0.9%). Prices: Binance spot TAO/USDT, hourly closes where this site recorded them, else daily closes. Readings cluster in episodes, so the samples overlap and are smaller than they look. This describes the past; it is not a trading signal and not financial advice.

How to read it. The delta is the share of top traders' TAO position that is long minus the share of all accounts that are long, in percentage points. Retail accounts usually lean long, so the delta sits below zero much of the time; what matters is where it stands against its own history. The chart shows Binance and Gate separately. Compare every coin on the whale vs retail hub and the long/short ratio page.

TAO whale vs retail FAQ

What is the TAO whale vs retail delta?

The share of TAO's top traders' combined position that is long, minus the share of all accounts with a TAO position that are long, in percentage points. Top traders are Binance's top 20% of futures users by margin balance, weighted by position size; the accounts ratio counts every account once.

How is the "after extremes" table built?

We take the hourly readings of the past year, keep the highest 5% and the lowest 5%, and compare TAO's Binance spot price at each reading with the price 24 hours and 7 days later: from hourly closes where this site has them, else from daily closes. The hit rate is how often price moved the way the whales leaned (up after the top 5%, down after the bottom 5%). Readings bunch together in episodes, so the number of distinct days is shown too.

Is it a trading signal?

No. The table describes what happened after past readings, before fees and funding, and a year holds only a handful of episodes. Nothing here is financial advice.