FOMC Bitcoin & Ethereum reaction history
How BTC and ETH moved after Fed rate decisions since 2019. Historical observations, not a forecast.
These moves followed the announcement; other news, positioning and market conditions also affected prices. Emergency cuts coincided with the COVID crisis, and the small samples describe different market regimes. They are not a controlled comparison.
Reactions by decision type
| Decision | Coin | 24h samples | Median 24h | Up after 24h | Median |1h| | 1h samples |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut | BTC | 11 | -0.16% | +45.45% | +0.49% | 11 |
| Cut | ETH | 11 | -0.62% | +45.45% | +0.69% | 11 |
| Hold | BTC | 40 | +0.01% | +50.00% | +0.69% | 40 |
| Hold | ETH | 40 | +0.02% | +50.00% | +0.69% | 40 |
| Hike | BTC | 12 | -0.20% | +41.67% | +1.28% | 12 |
| Hike | ETH | 12 | +0.42% | +58.33% | +1.31% | 12 |
Only available endpoints enter each statistic. “Up” means strictly positive. Absolute moves measure size regardless of direction.
Every rate decision · newest first
Download CSV| Decision date (ET) | Change | Coin | +1h | +4h | +24h | +7d | 24h range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 14:00 ET | Hike (+25 bp) | BTC | -0.18% | +0.27% | +1.19% | +11.30% | +2.82% |
| 2026-09-16 14:00 ET | Hike (+25 bp) | ETH | +0.30% | +0.59% | +3.01% | +11.60% | +4.84% |
| 2026-07-29 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | +0.36% | -0.64% | +0.94% | +0.78% | +3.02% |
| 2026-07-29 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | +0.23% | -0.93% | +0.25% | +0.03% | +3.47% |
| 2026-06-17 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | -0.89% | -2.79% | -5.29% | -10.14% | +6.16% |
| 2026-06-17 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | -1.06% | -2.82% | -6.14% | -12.78% | +7.03% |
| 2026-04-29 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | -0.88% | -0.33% | +0.09% | +6.92% | +2.31% |
| 2026-04-29 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | -1.91% | -1.31% | -1.09% | +2.92% | +2.95% |
| 2026-03-18 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | -0.70% | -0.46% | -2.43% | -1.14% | +4.66% |
| 2026-03-18 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | -1.04% | -0.07% | -3.50% | -1.81% | +6.40% |
| 2026-01-28 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | -0.16% | -0.17% | -6.78% | -18.00% | +7.77% |
| 2026-01-28 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | +0.04% | +0.11% | -8.34% | -28.77% | +10.31% |
| 2025-12-10 14:00 ET | Cut (-25 bp) | BTC | +0.49% | +0.01% | -1.94% | -7.22% | +5.84% |
| 2025-12-10 14:00 ET | Cut (-25 bp) | ETH | +0.27% | -1.04% | -5.27% | -16.79% | +9.61% |
| 2025-10-29 14:00 ET | Cut (-25 bp) | BTC | -0.96% | -0.24% | -3.93% | -7.13% | +4.90% |
| 2025-10-29 14:00 ET | Cut (-25 bp) | ETH | -2.39% | -1.42% | -6.05% | -14.39% | +7.81% |
| 2025-09-17 14:00 ET | Cut (-25 bp) | BTC | -0.24% | +0.46% | +1.80% | -1.51% | +2.77% |
| 2025-09-17 14:00 ET | Cut (-25 bp) | ETH | +0.51% | +2.15% | +3.96% | -5.64% | +5.27% |
| 2025-07-30 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | -1.09% | -0.40% | -0.06% | -1.95% | +2.70% |
| 2025-07-30 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | -1.75% | -1.10% | -0.77% | -3.23% | +5.47% |
| 2025-06-18 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | -0.68% | +0.72% | +0.18% | +2.94% | +1.67% |
| 2025-06-18 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | -0.85% | +1.27% | +0.47% | -2.96% | +3.09% |
| 2025-05-07 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | +0.30% | +0.84% | +4.90% | +7.21% | +6.18% |
| 2025-05-07 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | +0.57% | +0.36% | +13.92% | +44.21% | +16.15% |
| 2025-03-19 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | +1.64% | +1.67% | -0.16% | +2.78% | +4.64% |
| 2025-03-19 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | +0.90% | +0.63% | -2.80% | -1.05% | +6.03% |
| 2025-01-29 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | +0.71% | +0.62% | +2.65% | -5.96% | +4.99% |
| 2025-01-29 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | -0.05% | +0.14% | +4.55% | -12.95% | +7.51% |
| 2024-12-18 14:00 ET | Cut (-25 bp) | BTC | -1.90% | -3.49% | -5.61% | -5.78% | +8.16% |
| 2024-12-18 14:00 ET | Cut (-25 bp) | ETH | -3.30% | -5.60% | -9.72% | -10.99% | +15.09% |
| 2024-11-07 14:00 ET | Cut (-25 bp) | BTC | -0.10% | -0.96% | +0.27% | +16.33% | +1.99% |
| 2024-11-07 14:00 ET | Cut (-25 bp) | ETH | +0.20% | +0.08% | +2.74% | +8.79% | +4.22% |
| 2024-09-18 14:00 ET | Cut (-50 bp) | BTC | +1.03% | +0.31% | +6.16% | +5.26% | +7.36% |
| 2024-09-18 14:00 ET | Cut (-50 bp) | ETH | +1.14% | +0.96% | +7.21% | +11.53% | +8.46% |
| 2024-07-31 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | -0.24% | -2.56% | -5.20% | -16.67% | +7.11% |
| 2024-07-31 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | +0.07% | -2.31% | -5.90% | -28.59% | +7.57% |
| 2024-06-12 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | -1.39% | -1.81% | -4.13% | -6.76% | +5.37% |
| 2024-06-12 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | -1.55% | -1.58% | -4.23% | -1.69% | +5.72% |
| 2024-05-01 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | +2.59% | +0.84% | +3.07% | +9.00% | +4.77% |
| 2024-05-01 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | +2.33% | +1.58% | +2.42% | +3.05% | +4.23% |
| 2024-03-20 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | +2.04% | +5.57% | +2.52% | +7.13% | +6.71% |
| 2024-03-20 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | +2.98% | +6.04% | +5.27% | +6.03% | +8.86% |
| 2024-01-31 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | -0.41% | -1.97% | -1.53% | +0.32% | +3.98% |
| 2024-01-31 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | -0.52% | -2.14% | -1.70% | +3.53% | +4.57% |
| 2023-12-13 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | +1.44% | +1.98% | +1.73% | +4.79% | +5.01% |
| 2023-12-13 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | +1.63% | +1.98% | +3.16% | +0.39% | +4.66% |
| 2023-11-01 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | +0.20% | +2.52% | +0.76% | +2.33% | +4.91% |
| 2023-11-01 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | +0.70% | +1.99% | -0.14% | +4.69% | +5.04% |
| 2023-09-20 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | -0.11% | -0.31% | -2.00% | -3.54% | +3.50% |
| 2023-09-20 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | +0.21% | -0.17% | -2.46% | -1.94% | +4.66% |
| 2023-07-26 14:00 ET | Hike (+25 bp) | BTC | +0.37% | +0.67% | -0.17% | -0.41% | +1.75% |
| 2023-07-26 14:00 ET | Hike (+25 bp) | ETH | +0.75% | +0.73% | +0.45% | -1.40% | +1.75% |
| 2023-06-14 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | -0.43% | -3.48% | -3.39% | +15.57% | +5.23% |
| 2023-06-14 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | -0.56% | -5.10% | -5.35% | +7.38% | +7.46% |
| 2023-05-03 14:00 ET | Hike (+25 bp) | BTC | -0.46% | +1.21% | +0.93% | -3.77% | +4.14% |
| 2023-05-03 14:00 ET | Hike (+25 bp) | ETH | +0.53% | +0.78% | +0.39% | -2.38% | +3.24% |
| 2023-03-22 14:00 ET | Hike (+25 bp) | BTC | -1.71% | -5.02% | -0.77% | -0.93% | +8.52% |
| 2023-03-22 14:00 ET | Hike (+25 bp) | ETH | -0.84% | -3.79% | +2.19% | +0.63% | +8.60% |
| 2023-02-01 14:00 ET | Hike (+25 bp) | BTC | +1.34% | +2.76% | +4.23% | -0.80% | +6.57% |
| 2023-02-01 14:00 ET | Hike (+25 bp) | ETH | +2.32% | +3.61% | +7.62% | +4.15% | +10.26% |
| 2022-12-14 14:00 ET | Hike (+50 bp) | BTC | -2.31% | -2.07% | -4.46% | -7.82% | +5.98% |
| 2022-12-14 14:00 ET | Hike (+50 bp) | ETH | -1.89% | -1.57% | -4.54% | -9.22% | +6.33% |
| 2022-11-02 14:00 ET | Hike (+75 bp) | BTC | +0.10% | -1.39% | -1.03% | -17.02% | +3.84% |
| 2022-11-02 14:00 ET | Hike (+75 bp) | ETH | +0.21% | -2.96% | -1.25% | -25.12% | +7.95% |
| 2022-09-21 14:00 ET | Hike (+75 bp) | BTC | -1.17% | -7.05% | -4.02% | -2.63% | +10.10% |
| 2022-09-21 14:00 ET | Hike (+75 bp) | ETH | -1.57% | -10.33% | -7.67% | -5.40% | +15.48% |
| 2022-07-27 14:00 ET | Hike (+75 bp) | BTC | +4.32% | +4.89% | +11.00% | +8.46% | +11.52% |
| 2022-07-27 14:00 ET | Hike (+75 bp) | ETH | +5.43% | +7.16% | +16.56% | +10.73% | +17.04% |
| 2022-06-15 14:00 ET | Hike (+75 bp) | BTC | +2.00% | +5.19% | -0.23% | -4.02% | +13.56% |
| 2022-06-15 14:00 ET | Hike (+75 bp) | ETH | +5.18% | +10.12% | -0.60% | -2.87% | +20.37% |
| 2022-05-04 14:00 ET | Hike (+50 bp) | BTC | +1.62% | +1.94% | -5.56% | -23.24% | +9.61% |
| 2022-05-04 14:00 ET | Hike (+50 bp) | ETH | +2.90% | +2.91% | -3.83% | -23.36% | +8.70% |
| 2022-03-16 14:00 ET | Hike (+25 bp) | BTC | -1.23% | +1.67% | +0.86% | +4.29% | +5.51% |
| 2022-03-16 14:00 ET | Hike (+25 bp) | ETH | -1.06% | +2.25% | +3.76% | +9.61% | +7.71% |
| 2022-01-26 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | -1.00% | -3.82% | -4.60% | -1.25% | +9.61% |
| 2022-01-26 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | -1.19% | -6.40% | -6.54% | +3.15% | +15.63% |
| 2021-12-15 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | +1.77% | +1.92% | +0.32% | +1.56% | +4.85% |
| 2021-12-15 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | +4.19% | +5.02% | +5.66% | +4.49% | +9.43% |
| 2021-11-03 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | +1.09% | +1.02% | -2.57% | +9.86% | +4.89% |
| 2021-11-03 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | +2.29% | +1.29% | -2.35% | +6.37% | +5.06% |
| 2021-09-22 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | +0.01% | +0.27% | +3.91% | -4.43% | +4.86% |
| 2021-09-22 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | -0.14% | +0.58% | +4.81% | -6.72% | +6.14% |
| 2021-07-28 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | +3.80% | +2.91% | +1.66% | +1.10% | +4.92% |
| 2021-07-28 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | +2.53% | +1.83% | +2.84% | +18.34% | +4.09% |
| 2021-06-16 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | -1.18% | -1.03% | -3.77% | -14.23% | +5.68% |
| 2021-06-16 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | -0.33% | -0.53% | -4.64% | -18.67% | +6.70% |
| 2021-04-28 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | +0.17% | -0.07% | -3.82% | +4.45% | +7.07% |
| 2021-04-28 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | +0.42% | +1.58% | +0.66% | +25.28% | +4.97% |
| 2021-03-17 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | +3.66% | +5.19% | +6.68% | +1.05% | +8.26% |
| 2021-03-17 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | +1.82% | +1.81% | +1.55% | -5.23% | +3.82% |
| 2021-01-27 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | +3.47% | +2.73% | +9.84% | +24.92% | +9.95% |
| 2021-01-27 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | +3.53% | +1.99% | +9.32% | +34.46% | +11.61% |
| 2020-12-16 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | +0.73% | +3.79% | +12.94% | +14.67% | +15.82% |
| 2020-12-16 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | +0.64% | +2.60% | +6.09% | -1.26% | +9.47% |
| 2020-11-05 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | +1.22% | +3.99% | +3.49% | +7.76% | +7.11% |
| 2020-11-05 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | +0.73% | +1.83% | +7.78% | +11.16% | +9.08% |
| 2020-09-16 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | -0.28% | -0.23% | -1.63% | -5.30% | +3.15% |
| 2020-09-16 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | -0.82% | -0.63% | +3.27% | -8.51% | +5.97% |
| 2020-07-29 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | +0.34% | +1.07% | -1.14% | +4.48% | +4.73% |
| 2020-07-29 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | +0.39% | +0.82% | +1.26% | +23.91% | +3.45% |
| 2020-06-10 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | +0.51% | +0.76% | -4.00% | -3.80% | +9.65% |
| 2020-06-10 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | +0.80% | +1.45% | -3.44% | -4.75% | +10.65% |
| 2020-04-29 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | -0.95% | +1.67% | -1.78% | +6.41% | +12.61% |
| 2020-04-29 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | -0.22% | +0.13% | -4.32% | -3.33% | +12.52% |
| 2020-03-15 17:00 ET · unscheduled | Cut (-100 bp) | BTC | +13.83% | +1.32% | -5.55% | +14.20% | +33.72% |
| 2020-03-15 17:00 ET · unscheduled | Cut (-100 bp) | ETH | +10.33% | +0.93% | -9.32% | +3.00% | +32.05% |
| 2020-03-03 10:00 ET · unscheduled | Cut (-50 bp) | BTC | +0.19% | -0.21% | -0.16% | -7.96% | — |
| 2020-03-03 10:00 ET · unscheduled | Cut (-50 bp) | ETH | -0.16% | -0.77% | -0.88% | -9.62% | — |
| 2020-01-29 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | +0.23% | -0.32% | +1.35% | +3.04% | +3.54% |
| 2020-01-29 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | +0.14% | -0.28% | +2.67% | +15.27% | +6.09% |
| 2019-12-11 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | +0.16% | +0.21% | +0.39% | -4.56% | +3.03% |
| 2019-12-11 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | -0.13% | +0.10% | +1.57% | -10.98% | +4.61% |
| 2019-10-30 14:00 ET | Cut (-25 bp) | BTC | +0.55% | +0.26% | +1.43% | +1.99% | +5.52% |
| 2019-10-30 14:00 ET | Cut (-25 bp) | ETH | +0.71% | -0.16% | +0.60% | +4.32% | +4.28% |
| 2019-09-18 14:00 ET | Cut (-25 bp) | BTC | -0.07% | +0.09% | -1.64% | -17.83% | +5.77% |
| 2019-09-18 14:00 ET | Cut (-25 bp) | ETH | -0.69% | -0.63% | +2.81% | -21.00% | +10.70% |
| 2019-07-31 14:00 ET | Cut (-25 bp) | BTC | -0.48% | +0.27% | +0.63% | +17.64% | +2.96% |
| 2019-07-31 14:00 ET | Cut (-25 bp) | ETH | -0.39% | +0.07% | -0.62% | +4.21% | +4.20% |
| 2019-06-19 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | -0.31% | +0.82% | +2.21% | +48.16% | +5.18% |
| 2019-06-19 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | -0.25% | +0.38% | +0.19% | +32.29% | +1.89% |
| 2019-05-01 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | -0.52% | -0.60% | +1.92% | +9.91% | +3.65% |
| 2019-05-01 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | -0.69% | -1.56% | -0.45% | +4.45% | +2.43% |
| 2019-03-20 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | +0.27% | +0.23% | -1.15% | +0.28% | +4.88% |
| 2019-03-20 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | +0.15% | +0.28% | -2.27% | +0.25% | +6.44% |
| 2019-01-30 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | BTC | -0.32% | -0.04% | -1.30% | -1.83% | +2.06% |
| 2019-01-30 14:00 ET | Hold (+0 bp) | ETH | -0.48% | -0.27% | -2.64% | -4.30% | +4.88% |
Returns start at the hourly close at the announcement. Range uses the following 24 candle highs and lows. — = missing hour or unfinished horizon; no interpolation. On phones, scroll the tables horizontally.
Decision dates and target-range changes: Fed calendar, 2019, 2020 and target-range history. Copied 2026-10-19. Rate decisions through September 2026; later decisions require a data update.
These moves followed the announcement; other news, positioning and market conditions also affected prices. Emergency cuts coincided with the COVID crisis, and the small samples describe different market regimes. They are not a controlled comparison.
Not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future returns.
FOMC crypto reaction FAQ
What happens to Bitcoin on FOMC day?
The table measures BTC and ETH after each rate decision since January 2019. The summaries separate cuts, holds and hikes. These are observations, not evidence that the decision caused a price move or a forecast.
How are the reactions calculated?
The reference is the hourly Binance spot USDT candle closing at the announcement: 14:00 America/New_York for regular decisions, 10:00 ET on March 3, 2020 and 17:00 ET on March 15, 2020. Returns are 100 × (later close / reference close − 1). Seven days means 168 elapsed hours, including across DST. The 24h range is 100 × (highest high / lowest low − 1) across the next 24 hourly candles.
Why are some cells blank?
A dash means the exact reference or target candle is missing, or the horizon has not elapsed. The range needs all 24 candles. No prices are interpolated. Summary sample counts exclude missing values; unchanged prices do not count as up.
Which Fed decisions are included?
Scheduled rate decisions and the two emergency cuts announced in March 2020. Cancelled meetings, notation votes and operational balance-sheet announcements are excluded. Basis points describe changes to the target range, not the effective federal funds rate. The static decision list requires updates after meetings.