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Price after hourly price and OI states

For one exact perpetual contract: each time an hour entered a new price and open interest state, what did the recorded price do over the next 1, 4 and 24 hours? A description of observed history only.

Contract and range

Bybit AXISUSDT · last 30d

Contract bybit:perp:AXISUSDT. Hourly buckets from 2026-09-21 17:00 UTC to 2026-10-21 18:00 UTC; the newest bucket closed at 2026-10-21 18:00 UTC, at least 10 minutes ago. Source: exchange public data recorded by SwoleCharts (price: bars_1h, open interest: market_1h). Hour-by-hour state history · Compare two recorded hours

Price change after entering each state

State enteredAfternHigherMedian25th pct75th pct
Price up, exposure up 1h0 insufficient observations
4h0 insufficient observations
24h0 insufficient observations
Price down, exposure up 1h0 insufficient observations
4h0 insufficient observations
24h0 insufficient observations
Price up, exposure down 1h0 insufficient observations
4h0 insufficient observations
24h0 insufficient observations
Price down, exposure down 1h0 insufficient observations
4h0 insufficient observations
24h0 insufficient observations

n is the number of selected, non-overlapping entries. Higher is the share of those whose recorded close was strictly above the entry close; unchanged closes count in the denominator. With fewer than 5 selected entries the distribution is not shown.

Entries, exclusions and selection

State enteredAfterEntriesRun start unknownNot yet maturedRecording gapMissing priceEligibleOverlapping, skippedSelected n
Price up, exposure up 1h00000000
4h00000000
24h00000000
Price down, exposure up 1h01000000
4h01000000
24h01000000
Price up, exposure down 1h10100000
4h10100000
24h10100000
Price down, exposure down 1h00000000
4h00000000
24h00000000

Entries counts hours that entered the state from a different known state. Run start unknown counts hours in the state whose previous hour was unavailable or before the window; they are not entries. Each horizon then drops entries whose outcome hour has not completed, touches a recording gap, or lacks a recorded price, and skips entries that overlap the previous selected one.

How the outcomes are measured

Read the guide to hourly price and OI states and what followed for worked examples and limits.

States are the ones on the hourly state history: each hourly bucket compared with the one before by price change and price-adjusted open interest change. An entry is an hour in one of the four directional states whose previous hour had a different known state, including below threshold. It is known at that hour's close, so the entry never depends on how long the state later lasted.

The change after k hours is the recorded close k hours later divided by the entry hour's close, minus one. It is measured only when the later hour has completed, every hourly price in between is recorded and positive, and the engine was recording throughout. Excluded entries are counted, never filled from a neighbouring hour, interpolated or replaced with a live quote.

Within one state and horizon, entries are taken in time order: the earliest is kept and any entry that starts before the kept one's later close is skipped, whatever its return. The same hours still feed several states' and horizons' rows, so the rows are not independent of each other. Quantiles interpolate linearly between sorted returns (position q × (n − 1)).

This is a description of a short recorded history of one contract, not a forecast, signal or backtest. A handful of entries over 7 or 30 days says little about other periods, and the states describe what moved, not who traded.