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Bitcoin (BTC) implied volatility

Implied volatility of BTC options on Bybit and Binance: the IV smile for each expiry, the ATM term structure, the 30-day 25-delta risk reversal (skew) and how 30-day implied vol compares with 30-day realized vol. Recorded from the exchanges' public APIs every 5 minutes.

BTC 30-day implied vol is 34.9%, 6.6 points below 30-day realized (41.5%); calls trade at a 0.2-vol premium to puts. The ATM term structure is upward sloping (longer expiries price more vol): 30.2% for 1 Oct 2026 and 39.4% for 24 Sep 2027. Mark IV from Bybit and Binance options only, not the whole market.

12 expiriesMark IVSource: Bybit and Binance public APIsAs of 12:30 UTC

34.9%30-day ATM implied vol
41.5%30-day realized vol
−6.6IV − RV (vol points)
+0.230-day 25Δ risk reversal

BTC IV smile, 24 Sep 2027 expiry

mark IV by delta · bid/ask IV as a band
  • Binance mark IV
  • Bid/ask IV
-500% 0% 500% 1000% 1500% 10Δ put 25Δ put ATM 25Δ call 10Δ call Binance 50,000 put: mark IV 45.7%, bid 20.6% / ask 64.5%, delta -0.07 Binance 60,000 put: mark IV 42.7%, bid 13.5% / ask 1000.0%, delta -0.13 Binance 74,000 put: mark IV 40.3%, delta -0.26 Binance 76,000 put: mark IV 40.1%, delta -0.28 Binance 78,000 put: mark IV 39.9%, delta -0.30 Binance 80,000 put: mark IV 39.8%, delta -0.32 Binance 84,000 put: mark IV 39.6%, delta -0.37 Binance 86,000 put: mark IV 39.5%, delta -0.39 Binance 88,000 put: mark IV 39.4%, delta -0.42 Binance 90,000 call: mark IV 39.4%, delta +0.56 Binance 92,000 call: mark IV 39.3%, delta +0.54 Binance 94,000 call: mark IV 39.3%, delta +0.52 Binance 96,000 call: mark IV 39.3%, delta +0.50 Binance 98,000 call: mark IV 39.3%, delta +0.47 Binance 104,000 call: mark IV 39.3%, delta +0.41 Binance 114,000 call: mark IV 39.6%, delta +0.33 Binance 120,000 call: mark IV 39.9%, delta +0.29 Binance 130,000 call: mark IV 40.5%, bid 30.5% / ask 103.9%, delta +0.23
Every strike (18)
StrikeOTM sideBinance mark IVBid / ask IVDelta
50,000put45.7%20.6% / 64.5%-0.07
60,000put42.7%13.5% / 1000.0%-0.13
74,000put40.3%6.7% / —-0.26
76,000put40.1%5.8% / —-0.28
78,000put39.9%4.9% / —-0.30
80,000put39.8%20.5% / —-0.32
84,000put39.6%2.2% / —-0.37
86,000put39.5%1.3% / —-0.39
88,000put39.4%0.4% / —-0.42
90,000call39.4%0.8% / —+0.56
92,000call39.3%3.4% / —+0.54
94,000call39.3%2.4% / —+0.52
96,000call39.3%3.2% / —+0.50
98,000call39.3%18.3% / —+0.47
104,000call39.3%7.1% / —+0.41
114,000call39.6%8.8% / —+0.33
120,000call39.9%10.4% / —+0.29
130,000call40.5%30.5% / 103.9%+0.23

BTC ATM IV term structure

at-the-money mark IV by days to expiry
  • Bybit
  • Binance
  • Combined
25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 100d 200d 300d Bybit: 1 days, ATM IV 26.3% Bybit: 2 days, ATM IV 30.2% Bybit: 3 days, ATM IV 32.6% Bybit: 10 days, ATM IV 33.4% Bybit: 17 days, ATM IV 33.8% Bybit: 31 days, ATM IV 35.0% Bybit: 38 days, ATM IV 35.6% Bybit: 59 days, ATM IV 36.9% Bybit: 87 days, ATM IV 37.5% Bybit: 178 days, ATM IV 38.1% Bybit: 269 days, ATM IV 38.9% Binance: 1 days, ATM IV 26.2% Binance: 2 days, ATM IV 30.5% Binance: 3 days, ATM IV 32.8% Binance: 10 days, ATM IV 33.4% Binance: 17 days, ATM IV 33.8% Binance: 31 days, ATM IV 34.9% Binance: 59 days, ATM IV 37.1% Binance: 87 days, ATM IV 37.5% Binance: 178 days, ATM IV 38.2% Binance: 269 days, ATM IV 38.8% Binance: 360 days, ATM IV 39.4% Combined: 1 days, ATM IV 26.2% Combined: 2 days, ATM IV 30.2% Combined: 3 days, ATM IV 32.5% Combined: 10 days, ATM IV 33.4% Combined: 17 days, ATM IV 33.8% Combined: 31 days, ATM IV 34.9% Combined: 38 days, ATM IV 35.6% Combined: 59 days, ATM IV 37.0% Combined: 87 days, ATM IV 37.5% Combined: 178 days, ATM IV 38.2% Combined: 269 days, ATM IV 38.8% Combined: 360 days, ATM IV 39.4%
Expiry (08:00 UTC)DaysATM IVRR25Venues
30 Sep 20260.826.2%+0.4Binance, Bybit
1 Oct 20261.830.2%+0.6Binance, Bybit
2 Oct 20262.832.5%+0.6Binance, Bybit
9 Oct 20269.833.4%+0.2Binance, Bybit
16 Oct 20261733.8%0.0Binance, Bybit
30 Oct 20263134.9%+0.2Binance, Bybit
6 Nov 20263835.6%−0.7Bybit
27 Nov 20265937.0%−0.2Binance, Bybit
25 Dec 20268737.5%−0.3Binance, Bybit
26 Mar 202717838.2%−0.2Binance, Bybit
25 Jun 202726938.8%−0.1Binance, Bybit
24 Sep 202736039.4%−0.2Binance

30-day ATM implied volatility

constant maturity, interpolated between expiries in total variance
  • 30-day ATM IV
34.5% 34.6% 34.7% 34.8% 34.9% 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00

30-day 25-delta risk reversal

vol points · negative = puts bid

RR25 is the 25-delta call's implied vol minus the 25-delta put's: below zero traders pay up for downside protection, above zero for upside.

  • 30-day RR25
0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00

30-day implied vs realized volatility

IV − RV now: −6.6 vol points
  • 30-day ATM IV
  • 30-day realized vol
  • IV − RV
-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 00:00 30-day ATM IV: 34.9% 30-day realized vol: 41.5% IV − RV: -6.6%

How to read it. Mark IV is the implied volatility behind each exchange's option mark price. The smile uses the out-of-the-money option at each strike (puts below the forward, calls above); on the delta axis 0.25 is the 25-delta put, 0.5 at the money and 0.75 the 25-delta call. ATM IV is interpolated at the forward. The 30-day figures interpolate between the expiries either side of 30 days. Realized vol is the 30-day standard deviation of daily log returns of the Binance USDT perp, annualized with √365, as on the volatility screener.

Bybit and Binance options only, recorded from their public APIs every 5 minutes; not the whole crypto options market. Not financial advice.

Bitcoin implied volatility FAQ

What is Bitcoin implied volatility?

Implied volatility (IV) is the annualized volatility that makes an option's model price match its market price. It is the market's price for future movement, not a forecast. On this page it is each exchange's mark IV, the volatility behind its mark price.

What is 25-delta skew (the risk reversal)?

The 25-delta risk reversal (RR25) is the implied vol of the 25-delta call minus that of the 25-delta put. Negative means puts are bid: traders pay more for downside protection than for upside. Put skew is the same number with the opposite sign. The 30-day series interpolates between listed expiries in total variance.

Why is implied volatility different from realized volatility?

Realized vol measures how much the price actually moved (here the 30-day standard deviation of daily log returns, annualized with √365, as on the volatility screener). Implied vol is what options charge for the next 30 days. IV above RV means options are rich relative to recent moves; below means they are cheap. Nothing here is financial advice.

Which exchanges are covered?

Bybit and Binance options only, from their public market-data APIs, recorded every 5 minutes. That is not the whole crypto options market, so these IVs can differ from volatility indices built on other venues.