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Solana After a 5% Day: Historical Price Changes

Observed closing-price changes after large UTC daily falls and rallies.

Source: stored Binance spot SOLUSDT hourly candles; prices are in USDT. This is a close-to-close study of completed UTC days.

Actual source range: 2020-08-11 06:00 to 2026-10-25 23:00 UTC (hourly candle start times). These are historical observations, not a live reading.

Completed-observation cutoff: 2026-10-25, closing at 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC. Missing stored days before this cutoff are history gaps; later endpoints are not yet observed.

Complete source days
2256
All 24 valid hourly closes
Qualifying events
614
Falls ≤−5% or rallies ≥+5%
Dated events shown
30
Latest 30 across both sides

These are overlapping historical observations, not independent trials or predicted success rates. Adjacent signal days remain separate events. Each horizon has its own eligible outcome count; summaries use all events, including older rows not shown.

Falls of 5% or more

272 events
After signal closeQualified outcomesPositive / zero / negativeMedian changeHistory gapNot yet observed
1 day271 / 272 142 / 0 / 129 +0.35%10
3 days269 / 272 146 / 0 / 123 +0.67%30
7 days263 / 272 131 / 0 / 132 -0.20%90

Rallies of 5% or more

342 events
After signal closeQualified outcomesPositive / zero / negativeMedian changeHistory gapNot yet observed
1 day339 / 342 170 / 0 / 169 +0.03%30
3 days335 / 342 171 / 1 / 163 +0.83%70
7 days326 / 342 168 / 0 / 158 +0.57%160

Positive, zero and negative counts and the median are suppressed when fewer than five outcomes qualify. “History gap” excludes a completed horizon with any missing or invalid day; “not yet observed” excludes a horizon that has not fully ended.

Latest qualifying days

584 older events omitted from this table
Signal day (UTC)SideEvent-day change1 day after3 days after7 days after
2026-10-12Fall-5.02% +1.01%
2026-10-13 close
-0.30%
2026-10-15 close
-0.64%
2026-10-19 close
2026-10-08Fall-5.74% -0.45%
2026-10-09 close
+1.58%
2026-10-11 close
-3.81%
2026-10-15 close
2026-09-21Rally+6.95% -0.28%
2026-09-22 close
-1.56%
2026-09-24 close
-0.01%
2026-09-28 close
2026-09-18Rally+10.90% -1.47%
2026-09-19 close
+5.48%
2026-09-21 close
+8.37%
2026-09-25 close
2026-09-15Fall-5.51% +1.84%
2026-09-16 close
+16.35%
2026-09-18 close
+22.39%
2026-09-22 close
2026-08-27Rally+6.93% -4.57%
2026-08-28 close
-6.77%
2026-08-30 close
-4.76%
2026-09-03 close
2026-08-26Rally+5.66% +6.93%
2026-08-27 close
+3.47%
2026-08-29 close
-1.61%
2026-09-02 close
2026-08-21Rally+6.91% +0.11%
2026-08-22 close
+5.60%
2026-08-24 close
+11.13%
2026-08-28 close
2026-08-19Rally+10.81% +2.67%
2026-08-20 close
+9.89%
2026-08-22 close
+19.55%
2026-08-26 close
2026-07-01Rally+5.14% +4.22%
2026-07-02 close
+5.60%
2026-07-04 close
+0.48%
2026-07-08 close
2026-06-29Rally+5.30% -1.98%
2026-06-30 close
+7.41%
2026-07-02 close
+9.02%
2026-07-06 close
2026-06-26Rally+6.17% -1.95%
2026-06-27 close
+4.53%
2026-06-29 close
+14.52%
2026-07-03 close
2026-06-11Rally+5.92% -0.16%
2026-06-12 close
+6.50%
2026-06-14 close
+4.15%
2026-06-18 close
2026-06-07Rally+6.91% +0.48%
2026-06-08 close
-4.98%
2026-06-10 close
+7.19%
2026-06-14 close
2026-06-05Fall-7.61% -2.26%
2026-06-06 close
+5.00%
2026-06-08 close
+5.00%
2026-06-12 close
2026-06-02Fall-8.67% -3.53%
2026-06-03 close
-14.27%
2026-06-05 close
-12.49%
2026-06-09 close
2026-04-13Rally+6.11% -3.23%
2026-04-14 close
+2.94%
2026-04-16 close
-1.42%
2026-04-20 close
2026-04-07Rally+6.91% -3.49%
2026-04-08 close
-0.85%
2026-04-10 close
-2.15%
2026-04-14 close
2026-03-26Fall-5.64% -3.95%
2026-03-27 close
-5.88%
2026-03-29 close
-8.77%
2026-04-02 close
2026-03-23Rally+6.07% -0.69%
2026-03-24 close
-5.36%
2026-03-26 close
-9.72%
2026-03-30 close
2026-02-25Rally+11.48% -2.44%
2026-02-26 close
-4.21%
2026-02-28 close
+3.17%
2026-03-04 close
2026-02-23Fall-5.91% +1.40%
2026-02-24 close
+10.28%
2026-02-26 close
+11.22%
2026-03-02 close
2026-02-13Rally+7.56% +4.42%
2026-02-14 close
+2.51%
2026-02-16 close
+0.40%
2026-02-20 close
2026-02-06Rally+11.63% +0.15%
2026-02-07 close
-0.79%
2026-02-09 close
-3.58%
2026-02-13 close
2026-02-05Fall-14.95% +11.63%
2026-02-06 close
+11.03%
2026-02-08 close
+0.06%
2026-02-12 close
2026-02-04Fall-5.89% -14.95%
2026-02-05 close
-4.92%
2026-02-07 close
-13.92%
2026-02-11 close
2026-02-03Fall-6.37% -5.89%
2026-02-04 close
-10.65%
2026-02-06 close
-15.22%
2026-02-10 close
2026-01-31Fall-10.21% -4.54%
2026-02-01 close
-7.28%
2026-02-03 close
-17.04%
2026-02-07 close
2026-01-29Fall-6.01% -0.20%
2026-01-30 close
-14.45%
2026-02-01 close
-33.50%
2026-02-05 close
2026-01-25Fall-6.57% +4.54%
2026-01-26 close
+5.47%
2026-01-28 close
-15.20%
2026-02-01 close

Source coverage and method

Read window: 2016-10-26 00:00 UTC inclusive to 2026-10-26 00:00 UTC exclusive, bounded to the last ten calendar years.

2256 complete days; 11 recorded but incomplete or invalid days; 0 entirely missing dates from the first recorded day through the cutoff (including any stale tail). 11 complete days lack a complete previous day and cannot be signals. 1631 eligible day-to-day changes fall strictly between −5% and +5% and are excluded.

A complete day has exactly 24 distinct, hour-aligned timestamps with finite positive closes. Its daily close C[D] is the close of the 23:00 UTC hour, known only at 00:00 UTC on the following date. A signal needs complete days D and D−1; its change is 100 × (C[D] / C[D−1] − 1). Equality at −5% or +5% qualifies.

A subsequent h-day change is 100 × (C[D+h] / C[D] − 1), for h = 1, 3 or 7 calendar days. Every intervening full UTC day and the endpoint must be complete. No nearby date or interpolated price replaces a gap. Dated row links identify the exact signal source day on this stable page.

The stored hourly archive may start in 2019 even when the parent’s daily API series starts in 2017. Those sources are not merged here. An old archive retains its dated facts and its actual source end; missing data may hide qualifying events. Successful reads are cached for up to one hour.

These spot price changes exclude fees, slippage, funding and execution assumptions. They are historical comparisons, not strategy returns or forecasts.