Volume spike hit rates this week, so far: Week 45, 2026
One report per ISO week (Monday to Sunday, UTC) of the volume spikes this site detected on Binance, Bybit and Hyperliquid: how often price kept going in the spike's direction 5, 15 and 60 minutes later (the hit rate), which coins followed through best and worst, the week's biggest spikes and how it compares with the week before. Past outcomes, not a forecast.
In week 45, 2026 (2–8 Nov 2026) so far, the hit rate of buy- and sell-side volume spikes was 51.4% after 5 min, 48.3% after 15 min and 43.1% after 1 hour (up to 1,269 spikes measured). 1,564 volume spikes so far this week, against 107,478 in the whole of week 44. The 1-hour hit rate is 43.1% so far, against 48.1% in week 44 (down 5.0 points).
Download summary CSV · Breakdowns: exchange CSV · level CSV · direction CSV · market segment CSV
Week 45, 2026 so far vs the week before
2–8 Nov 2026 (UTC)| After | Hit rate | Week before | Change | Median | Week before |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 min | 51.4%n = 1269 | 46.6%n = 85678 | +4.8 pts | +0.01% | 0.00% |
| 15 min | 48.3%n = 1208 | 46.9%n = 85678 | +1.5 pts | 0.00% | -0.01% |
| 1 hour | 43.1%n = 932 | 48.1%n = 85678 | -5.0 pts | -0.12% | -0.01% |
| After | Hits / measured | Misses | Non-directional excluded | Directional without outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 min | 652 / 1269 | 617 | 270 | 25 |
| 15 min | 584 / 1208 | 624 | 270 | 86 |
| 1 hour | 402 / 932 | 530 | 270 | 362 |
Hit rate = hits / measured directional spikes; no measured sample means unavailable (—). Measured = hits + misses. Total = measured + non-directional excluded + directional without outcome. Zero signed movement counts as a miss. Mixed/non-directional spikes are excluded. Absent outcomes can mean missing measurements as well as pending outcomes; even for a completed week, missing outcomes may never arrive.
1,564 volume spikes so far this week, against 107,478 in the whole of week 44. The 1-hour hit rate is 43.1% so far, against 48.1% in week 44 (down 5.0 points).
The week's biggest spikes so far
By size vs normal minute volume · times UTC · Download CSV| When | Market | Side | × normal | +5m | +15m | +1h | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 2 Nov 01:04 | TQQQB spot · Binance | mixed | 2907.5× | -0.17% | -0.06% | -0.19% | — |
| Mon 2 Nov 01:01 | TQQQB spot · Binance | buy | 1168.8× | -0.20% | 0.00% | -0.19% | miss |
| Mon 2 Nov 00:08 | LITE xyz:LITE HIP-3 · Hyperliquid | buy | 942.6× | -0.35% | -0.07% | +2.16% | hit |
| Mon 2 Nov 01:09 | TQQQB spot · Binance | mixed | 828.8× | -0.06% | +0.03% | +0.22% | — |
| Mon 2 Nov 01:01 | QQQB spot · Binance | buy | 817.2× | -0.03% | +0.04% | -0.05% | miss |
Best and worst follow-through
Coins with 5+ spikes this week, by median +1h| Coin | Spikes | Hit rate +1h | Median +1h |
|---|---|---|---|
| RUNE best | 7 | 100.0% | +3.23% |
| KORU best | 8 | 75.0% | +2.33% |
| LSK best | 6 | 66.7% | +0.94% |
| SKHY best | 10 | 60.0% | +0.70% |
| ENA best | 23 | 60.9% | +0.54% |
| EWY worst | 7 | 14.3% | -1.74% |
| XPL worst | 19 | 26.3% | -1.24% |
| ARB worst | 5 | 0.0% | -0.93% |
| SMSN worst | 5 | 0.0% | -0.88% |
| 牛来 worst | 7 | 42.9% | -0.84% |
Coins with the most spikes
Top 20 of 163| Coin | Spikes | Hit rate +1h | Median +1h |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETH | 36 | 52.8% | +0.02% |
| ZEC | 36 | 52.8% | +0.20% |
| BTC | 34 | 29.4% | -0.15% |
| XRP | 34 | 38.2% | -0.31% |
| SOL | 30 | 36.7% | -0.23% |
| DOGE | 26 | 19.2% | -0.41% |
| ENA | 23 | 60.9% | +0.54% |
| NEAR | 23 | 52.2% | +0.02% |
| PEPE | 20 | 20.0% | -0.82% |
| AAVE | 19 | 42.1% | -0.18% |
Method
Week. ISO week 2026-W45: Monday 00:00 to Sunday 24:00 UTC (2–8 Nov 2026). This week is still running, so every figure is so far and the comparison is with the whole of the week before.
Hit rate. The same definitions as spike outcomes: for each buy- or sell-side volume spike, the follow-through at +5m, +15m and +1h is the change from the spike minute's close, with the sign flipped for sell-side spikes. A hit is a follow-through above zero. Mixed spikes (270 this week) are left out of hit rates and medians. Cells with fewer than 30 spikes are faded. Weeks with fewer than 300 spikes with a 1-hour outcome are kept but not indexed.
Reading it. Descriptive statistics of past spikes, before fees, slippage and funding, from a price you could not have traded at. Not a trading signal and not financial advice.
Cite this report
Swolecharts, "Recorded volume spike outcomes, 2026-W45 (2–8 Nov 2026 UTC) — in progress", 2 Nov 2026 (UTC), https://swolecharts.com/spike-stats/week/2026-W45
Source: Swolecharts recorded scanner alerts on Binance, Bybit and Hyperliquid. Original report extraction/build: 2026-11-02T02:27:41Z; original data cutoff: 2026-11-02T02:27:41Z. Build status: current selected build. This dated permalink is stable, but its data may be rebuilt; it is not an immutable publication.
Weekly spike report FAQ
Which days does a week cover?
ISO weeks in UTC: Monday 00:00 to Sunday 24:00. Week 1 is the week with the year's first Thursday, so a week around New Year can carry the other year's number. The current week's page fills in as spikes happen and says so far; past weeks are final once their last 1-hour outcomes are in.
How is the hit rate calculated?
For each buy- or sell-side volume spike we compare the close of the spike minute with the close 5, 15 and 60 minutes later. A buy-side spike is a hit when price went up, a sell-side spike when it went down (exactly unchanged is a miss). Mixed spikes are left out. The method is the same as on spike outcomes.
Can I trade on these numbers?
No claim is made that you can. These describe what happened after past spikes, before fees, slippage and funding, measured from a price you could not have traded at. A hit rate near 50% means no follow-through either way. Nothing here is financial advice.