Bitcoin vs US M2 Money Supply
BTC month-end price against US M2 year-over-year growth. US M2 only; monthly observations, with a release lag.
Bitcoin price and US M2 growth
1 Aug 2017 – 1 Aug 2026 · CSVBTC price (USDT, left · log) US M2 YoY (%, right)
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.6 Money Stock Measures. BTC: Binance BTCUSDT daily closes. Monthly M2 observations are aligned to completed BTC month-end closes, not release dates. US M2 can be revised.
Rolling correlation with US M2 growth
12 months 24 months
BTC monthly percentage return versus US M2 year-over-year growth, without shifting either series. Correlation is not causation.
Bitcoin price per $1 trillion of US M2
BTC price ÷ (US M2 in billions ÷ 1,000). This is a scale comparison, not Bitcoin market capitalization or a valuation model.
Last 24 matched months
| Month | BTC (USDT) | US M2 ($B) | US M2 YoY | BTC YoY | BTC / $1T US M2 | 12m corr. | 24m corr. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 78,581.29 | 23,342.8 | 5.66% | -27.41% | 3366.40 | 0.374 | -0.089 |
| 2026-07 | 62,887.88 | 23,217.9 | 5.41% | -45.68% | 2708.59 | 0.086 | -0.160 |
| 2026-06 | 58,624.71 | 23,114.9 | 5.34% | -45.29% | 2536.23 | -0.127 | -0.206 |
| 2026-05 | 73,674.39 | 23,013.7 | 5.39% | -29.56% | 3201.33 | 0.201 | -0.010 |
| 2026-04 | 76,346.57 | 22,756.6 | 4.53% | -18.93% | 3354.92 | 0.166 | -0.066 |
| 2026-03 | 68,284.48 | 22,640.3 | 4.41% | -17.28% | 3016.06 | -0.181 | 0.019 |
| 2026-02 | 66,973.26 | 22,598.7 | 4.59% | -20.60% | 2963.59 | -0.150 | -0.114 |
| 2026-01 | 78,741.09 | 22,413.4 | 4.06% | -23.13% | 3513.13 | 0.377 | -0.370 |
| 2025-12 | 87,648.22 | 22,355.3 | 4.04% | -6.33% | 3920.69 | 0.225 | -0.268 |
| 2025-11 | 90,360.00 | 22,279.8 | 3.85% | -6.27% | 4055.69 | 0.251 | -0.274 |
| 2025-10 | 109,608.01 | 22,249.8 | 4.28% | 55.93% | 4926.25 | -0.064 | -0.234 |
| 2025-09 | 114,048.93 | 22,176.1 | 4.23% | 80.09% | 5142.88 | -0.065 | -0.315 |
| 2025-08 | 108,246.35 | 22,092.6 | 4.25% | 83.55% | 4899.67 | -0.073 | -0.272 |
| 2025-07 | 115,764.08 | 22,025.6 | 4.39% | 79.12% | 5255.89 | 0.250 | -0.114 |
| 2025-06 | 107,146.50 | 21,942.6 | 4.14% | 70.69% | 4883.04 | 0.229 | -0.063 |
| 2025-05 | 104,591.88 | 21,836.1 | 3.87% | 54.86% | 4789.86 | 0.369 | -0.071 |
| 2025-04 | 94,172.00 | 21,770.8 | 3.89% | 55.21% | 4325.61 | 0.201 | -0.031 |
| 2025-03 | 82,550.01 | 21,684.1 | 3.43% | 15.81% | 3806.94 | 0.272 | -0.050 |
| 2025-02 | 84,349.94 | 21,607.2 | 3.28% | 37.98% | 3903.79 | 0.111 | -0.074 |
| 2025-01 | 102,429.56 | 21,539.3 | 3.38% | 140.56% | 4755.47 | -0.257 | 0.031 |
| 2024-12 | 93,576.00 | 21,487.6 | 3.41% | 121.31% | 4354.88 | -0.142 | -0.001 |
| 2024-11 | 96,407.99 | 21,454.7 | 3.40% | 155.56% | 4493.56 | -0.089 | 0.052 |
| 2024-10 | 70,292.01 | 21,336.6 | 2.89% | 102.92% | 3294.43 | -0.354 | -0.148 |
| 2024-09 | 63,327.59 | 21,275.6 | 2.52% | 134.87% | 2976.54 | -0.530 | -0.181 |
Bitcoin and the Fed funds rate
Effective federal funds rate, monthly averages in percent per year — not the FOMC target range. BTC uses completed UTC month-end closes.
BTC price (USDT · log)
Effective Fed funds rate (%) · monthly average
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.15 Selected Interest Rates. BTC: Binance BTCUSDT. Rate history fetched 2026-10-20. For upcoming FOMC meetings, see the crypto economic calendar.
The table marks monthly average rate moves of at least 0.20 percentage points (pp). These are observation months, not individual FOMC decisions or their announcement dates. BTC +7d/+30d compares the month-end close with the close exactly 7/30 calendar days later; unavailable or incomplete closes show —. Monthly averages can spread a policy move across months. This retrospective comparison is not a trading signal; correlation is not causation.
| Month-end (UTC) | Avg. rate | Change (pp) | BTC +7d | BTC +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 3.88% | -0.21 | 0.04% | -2.07% |
| 2024-10-31 | 4.83% | -0.30 | 7.92% | 37.15% |
| 2024-09-30 | 5.13% | -0.20 | -1.74% | 14.24% |
| 2023-08-31 | 5.33% | 0.21 | 1.21% | 3.94% |
| 2023-05-31 | 5.06% | 0.23 | -3.20% | 11.99% |
| 2023-02-28 | 4.57% | 0.24 | -4.08% | 21.12% |
| 2023-01-31 | 4.33% | 0.23 | 0.50% | 1.47% |
| 2022-12-31 | 4.10% | 0.32 | 2.43% | 37.99% |
| 2022-11-30 | 3.78% | 0.70 | -1.91% | -3.24% |
| 2022-10-31 | 3.08% | 0.52 | 0.49% | -16.24% |
| 2022-09-30 | 2.56% | 0.23 | 0.55% | 6.20% |
| 2022-08-31 | 2.33% | 0.65 | -3.78% | -3.13% |
| 2022-07-31 | 1.68% | 0.47 | -0.51% | -14.95% |
| 2022-06-30 | 1.21% | 0.44 | 8.44% | 18.56% |
| 2022-05-31 | 0.77% | 0.44 | -2.12% | -37.29% |
| 2020-04-30 | 0.05% | -0.60 | 15.85% | 12.50% |
| 2020-03-31 | 0.65% | -0.93 | 12.27% | 34.47% |
| 2019-11-30 | 1.55% | -0.28 | -0.71% | -3.92% |
| 2019-10-31 | 1.83% | -0.21 | 0.82% | -17.49% |
| 2019-08-31 | 2.13% | -0.27 | 9.06% | -13.54% |
| 2018-10-31 | 2.19% | 0.24 | 3.24% | -36.58% |
Bitcoin vs US M2 FAQ
Is this global M2?
No. This is US M2 only, seasonally adjusted, in billions of US dollars. It does not combine other central banks or currencies.
Why does US M2 lag Bitcoin?
H.6 is a monthly release published after the observation month. M2 is a monthly measure; BTC is the UTC month-end BTCUSDT close from Binance, available since August 2017. The chart aligns observation months, not publication dates. Revisions can change past values; this is not a point-in-time backtest.
Does US M2 growth predict Bitcoin?
Correlation is not causation. The 12- and 24-month rolling Pearson correlations compare BTC monthly percentage returns with US M2 year-over-year growth in the same months, without a lead or lag. Missing months leave gaps. No correlation is shown until a complete window exists. This is not financial advice.