Observed liquidation aftermath
Price changes after the largest recorded five-minute liquidation clusters in BTC, ETH and SOL.
Seven completed UTC days
2026-10-06 00:00 UTC to 2026-10-13 00:00 UTC (exclusive). Computed Oct 13, 10:00 UTC; refreshed every 15 minutes.
12 non-overlapping events. Available returns: +5m n=12, +15m n=12, +60m n=12. No aggregate estimate is shown.
| Coin / ranked side | Cluster end (UTC) | Observed longs (USD) | Observed shorts (USD) | Reference market / price | +5m (%) | +15m (%) | +60m (%) | Liquidation venues |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC / short | Oct 6, 08:10 UTC | $943 | $2.01M | Binance BTCUSDT perp 85,809.2 · Oct 6, 08:10 UTC Complete minute coverage |
-0.08% | -0.02% | 0.09% | Aster, Binance, Bitget, Bybit, Gate, HTX, Lighter |
| BTC / long | Oct 7, 02:00 UTC | $36.16M | $97K | Binance BTCUSDT perp 84,330.7 · Oct 7, 02:00 UTC Incomplete minute coverage |
-0.64% | -0.51% | -0.61% | Aster, Binance, Bitget, Bybit, Gate, HTX, Lighter |
| BTC / long | Oct 7, 13:40 UTC | $6.67M | $168K | Binance BTCUSDT perp 83,073.1 · Oct 7, 13:40 UTC Complete minute coverage |
-0.02% | 0.27% | -0.10% | Aster, Binance, Bitget, Bybit, Gate, HTX, Lighter |
| BTC / short | Oct 9, 02:55 UTC | $0 | $2.65M | Binance BTCUSDT perp 82,209.5 · Oct 9, 02:55 UTC Incomplete minute coverage |
-0.15% | -0.16% | 0.22% | Aster, Binance, Bitget, Bybit, Gate, HTX, Lighter |
| BTC / short | Oct 9, 11:35 UTC | $0 | $3.49M | Binance BTCUSDT perp 82,821.7 · Oct 9, 11:35 UTC Complete minute coverage |
0.21% | 0.53% | 0.34% | Aster, Binance, Bitget, Bybit, Gate, HTX, Lighter |
| BTC / short | Oct 11, 15:45 UTC | $83 | $3.87M | Binance BTCUSDT perp 83,375.8 · Oct 11, 15:45 UTC Complete minute coverage |
0.07% | 0.59% | 0.62% | Aster, Binance, Bitget, Bybit, Gate, HTX, Lighter |
| BTC / short | Oct 11, 17:40 UTC | $3,363 | $3.45M | Bybit BTCUSDT perp 84,080 · Oct 11, 17:40 UTC Complete minute coverage |
-0.15% | -0.21% | -0.35% | Aster, Binance, Bitget, Bybit, Gate, HTX, Lighter |
| BTC / long | Oct 11, 21:20 UTC | $2.43M | $0 | Binance BTCUSDT perp 83,342.9 · Oct 11, 21:20 UTC Complete minute coverage |
0.01% | 0.15% | 0.28% | Aster, Binance, Bitget, Bybit, Gate, HTX, Lighter |
| BTC / short | Oct 12, 07:00 UTC | $337 | $1.87M | Binance BTCUSDT perp 84,178.6 · Oct 12, 07:00 UTC Incomplete minute coverage |
0.06% | 0.13% | -0.26% | Aster, Binance, Bitget, Bybit, Gate, Lighter |
| BTC / long | Oct 12, 12:40 UTC | $9.51M | $413 | Binance BTCUSDT perp 82,724.9 · Oct 12, 12:40 UTC Incomplete minute coverage |
0.13% | 0.00% | -0.02% | Aster, Binance, Bitget, Bybit, Gate, HTX, Lighter |
| BTC / long | Oct 12, 21:50 UTC | $2.04M | $0 | Binance BTCUSDT perp 82,519.7 · Oct 12, 21:49 UTC Incomplete minute coverage |
0.17% | 0.11% | 0.03% | Aster, Binance, Bitget, Bybit, HTX |
| BTC / long | Oct 12, 23:00 UTC | $4.10M | $82 | Binance BTCUSDT perp 82,126.6 · Oct 12, 23:00 UTC Incomplete minute coverage |
-0.02% | -0.14% | -0.38% | Aster, Binance, Bitget, Bybit, HTX, Lighter |
Observed feed coverage
- Binance: USDⓈ-M perps and, from 2026-09-28, COIN-M (inverse) perps
- Bybit: Every liquidation (allLiquidation stream)
- Bitget: Sampled liquidations (largest per coin and side each second)
- Gate: Every liquidation on USDT perps (futures.public_liquidates, batched each second)
- HTX: Every liquidation on USDT swaps (public liquidation_orders stream)
- Aster: Crypto perps (stocks excluded): OI every 60s (top 60) or 5 min, funding every 60s
- Lighter: Every liquidation on crypto perps (liquidation fills on the public trade stream)
Contributing venues appear per event. Binance reports only the latest liquidation per symbol per 1000 milliseconds: observed notional is a sampled lower bound during cascades, not total market liquidation exposure.
Selection. Rank non-overlapping five-minute UTC buckets by observed notional separately for each long/short side. Take the top 20 per coin (ties: earliest bucket, then side). From those candidates keep the earliest event and suppress later windows beginning less than 60 minutes after it, including the opposite side of the same bucket. Both side totals describe that bucket. At most 60 events; no replacement of suppressed candidates.
Prices. One Binance USDT perpetual reference market per event; use Bybit USDT perpetual instead only when it covers the entire 60-minute window with closed minute bars. If neither has full coverage, retain available Binance points and mark gaps. The reference is the last minute close at or before cluster end; each horizon uses the last close at or before its target within one minute. Unelapsed horizons and missing bars are unavailable. Returns are 100 × (later price / reference price − 1), without fees or side adjustment.
Retrospective only. These selected observations do not establish causation, predict prices or measure trading win rates. Liquidations and minute closes are recorded from public exchange feeds. No modelled liquidation levels or wallet identities.