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Bitcoin Power Law Chart

The Bitcoin power law says the price has grown roughly as a power of the coin's age, which is a straight line when both price and time are on log scales. We fit that line by least squares and draw it as fair value, with support and resistance lines at the 2nd and 98th percentile of how far past closes sat from it. Dotted lines project the fit two years ahead.

On 1 Oct 2026 Bitcoin ($83,971) is -17% against our power-law fair value of $101,730; the price was lower on 40% of the days since 17 Aug 2017. Support (2nd percentile of past deviations) is at $46,331 today and resistance (98th) at $297,631. The fit uses 3,333 daily closes from 17 Aug 2017: log10(price) = 4.405 × log10(days since 3 Jan 2009) − 11.781. It is a model of past prices, not a forecast, and it is refitted daily.

Source: Binance spot BTCUSDT daily closes (UTC), from 17 Aug 2017Chart 17 Aug 2017 – 1 Oct 2026As of 15:13 UTC

Power law 1 Oct 2026
-17% 17% below fair value
price vs our power-law fair value
BTC close UTC day so far
$83,971
1 Oct 2026
Fair value today
$101,730
support $46,331 · resistance $297,631
Percentile vs the fit
40%
of days since 17 Aug 2017 were lower

Bitcoin power law chart

17 Aug 2017 – 30 Sep 2028 · log price · CSV
Bitcoin price with its power-law fair value, support and resistance Daily Bitcoin closing price on a log scale with a least-squares power-law fit of price against coin age (fair value), support and resistance lines at the 2nd and 98th percentile of past deviations, and the lines projected two years ahead as dotted lines. $2k $5k $10k $20k $50k $100k $200k $500k 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

BTC price fair value support (2%) resistance (98%)

The fit uses every daily close from 17 Aug 2017; the dotted lines are the same fit projected two years ahead, a model and not a forecast. The chart plots every 7th day to stay light; the CSV has every day. Not financial advice: these pages describe what each indicator showed in past cycles and predict nothing.

Power law FAQ

What is the Bitcoin power law?

The observation that Bitcoin's price has grown roughly as a power of the time since its genesis block (3 January 2009): plotted with log price against log age, the closes cluster around a straight line. We fit that line ourselves by ordinary least squares and show how far today's price sits from it.

How are support and resistance set?

As the 2nd and 98th percentile of the daily residuals, how far each close was above or below the fit in log terms. By construction the price closed under the support line on about 2% of the days used and above the resistance line on about 2%. They are statistical edges of past data, not guaranteed floors or caps.

Which data does the fit use?

Every daily close on this page, from the start date shown under the chart. Without a longer history the fit is shorter than the full life of Bitcoin, so the line and the quantiles differ from charts fitted on data back to 2010. It is refitted each day.

Is the projection a forecast?

No. The dotted lines extend the same fit two years ahead to show where past behaviour would put the lines; the price can and has left them for long periods. It is a model, not a prediction.

Where does the price data come from?

Daily closing prices (00:00 UTC) of Bitcoin from exchange public APIs: Binance spot BTCUSDT from 17 Aug 2017. Moving averages start once enough days of history have passed. The data refreshes every few hours, and today's close is the latest price so far. Each chart's data is free to download as CSV.

Is this a buy or sell signal?

No. These indicators describe how the price moved against its own averages in past cycles, and Bitcoin has had only a handful of cycles, so any pattern rests on very few examples. Nothing here is financial advice.