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Price After Funding Extremes: Historical Returns

Does negative funding mean price goes up? Compare what happened after low and high funding days with the same coin’s returns after all days.

Covered coins and current funding buckets

Coins need at least 730 paired days of settled Binance USDT funding and hourly spot closes. The current bucket compares the last 7 completed UTC days’ mean funding with historical daily funding. Refreshed daily; this is not a live quote.

CoinCurrent buckets7d mean / dayPercentilePaired daysAs of (UTC)
AAVE price after funding Above zero 0.0083%22.121922026-10-28
ADA price after funding Above zero 0.0073%26.224582026-10-28
AVAX price after funding Below zero -0.0001%30.122162026-10-28
BCH price after funding Above zero 0.0124%47.524892026-10-28
BNB price after funding Above zero 0.0051%69.624372026-10-28
BTC price after funding Above zero 0.0176%41.625872026-10-28
DOGE price after funding Above zero 0.0102%28.022902026-10-28
ENA price after funding Above zero 0.0180%68.19382026-10-28
ETH price after funding Above zero 0.0155%35.425112026-10-28
LINK price after funding Above zero 0.0100%24.224602026-10-28
LTC price after funding Above zero 0.0119%29.124682026-10-28
NEAR price after funding Above zero 0.0107%30.821942026-10-28
PEPE price after funding Above zero 0.0172%42.912712026-10-28
SOL price after funding Above zero 0.0147%45.922222026-10-28
SUI price after funding Above zero 0.0077%38.212732026-10-28
TAO price after funding Above zero 0.0082%31.19292026-10-28
TRX price after funding Below zero -0.0222%24.324622026-10-28
UNI price after funding Above zero 0.0103%17.722212026-10-28
WLD price after funding Below zero -0.0072%26.111912026-10-28
XRP price after funding Above zero 0.0222%46.424712026-10-28
ZEC price after funding Above zero 0.0124%20.924422026-10-28

How these returns are measured

Source: Binance public exchange data stored by SwoleCharts, from January 2019 or the coin’s later listing. Funding is the sum of rates actually settled in each UTC day for the coin’s Binance USDT perpetual. It is not an 8-hour equivalent or an average quote. A funding day must contain 24 represented settlement hours.

Price is the Binance USDT spot close at the end of the funding day (the 23:00 hourly candle’s close). A 1, 3 or 7 day return is the later day-end close divided by that initial close, minus one. Every spot day through the outcome must have all 24 positive, finite hourly closes. Missing or not-yet-completed outcomes are excluded; no interpolation. Returns exclude fees and funding payments.

For each bucket and horizon, keep the earliest eligible day, then skip days whose return window overlaps the last kept window. The next day can be selected at or after the previous exit. All days uses the same rule. These are separate samples: buckets overlap, and samples across buckets and horizons can overlap too.

Decile edges and return percentiles use linear interpolation in sorted history. Equal values at a decile edge are included, so ties can make a bucket larger than 10%. Below zero and above zero are strict; zero belongs to neither. The current percentile is the share of historical daily sums at or below the 7-day mean.

These are descriptions of what happened, not forecasts. Full-history cutoffs use later observations too; this is not a trading backtest. Non-overlapping windows do not guarantee statistical independence. Funding regimes differ by year, and a pooled historical average can hide those changes. Not financial advice.