Bitcoin Bull Market Peak Signals
A checklist of bull market peak signals: each price-based cycle indicator on this site turned into a yes/no test against the top line it has historically reached near cycle tops. The table shows today's value, the threshold, how far along it is and the last day it was hit. Readings at their top lines came historically near tops; they are not predictions.
On 18 Oct 2026 Bitcoin ($81,194) has 0 of 10 price-based peak signals at or above their top lines. The closest one not yet hit is the Pi Cycle Top at 0.475, 48% of its threshold (≥ 1.000 (lines cross)).
Peak signal checklist
daily closes 17 Aug 2017 – 18 Oct 2026| Indicator | Today | Hit? | Top line | Of threshold | Last hit | Measure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pi Cycle Top | 0.475 | Not hit | ≥ 1.000 (lines cross) | 48% | 22 Apr 2021 (11 days) | 111DMA ÷ 2×350DMA |
| Mayer Multiple | 1.12 | Not hit | ≥ 2.4 | 47% | 13 Mar 2021 (25 days) | Price ÷ 200-day MA |
| AHR999 index | 0.51 | Not hit | ≥ 4 | 13% | 11 May 2021 (121 days) | AHR999 |
| 2-Year MA Multiplier | 0.91× | Not hit | ≥ 5× | 18% | never since 16 Aug 2019 | Price ÷ 730-day MA |
| Golden Ratio Multiplier | 1.06× | Not hit | ≥ 3× | 35% | 20 Mar 2021 (35 days) | Price ÷ 350-day MA |
| 200-week MA heatmap | +2.2% | Not hit | ≥ +16% | 14% | never since 16 Jul 2021 | 200WMA change over 30 days |
| Rainbow chart | 0.33× | Not hit | ≥ 1.00× (top band) | 33% | 20 Nov 2021 (168 days) | Price ÷ top band's lower edge |
| Power law | 0.28× | Not hit | ≥ 1.00× (resistance) | 28% | 9 May 2021 (67 days) | Price ÷ power-law resistance |
| Puell Multiple | 1.04 | Not hit | ≥ 4 | 26% | never since 16 Aug 2018 | Issuance-only Puell Multiple |
| Log growth curve | 0.25× | Not hit | ≥ 1.00× (upper curve) | 25% | 6 Jan 2018 (12 days) | Price ÷ upper growth curve |
A signal is hit on days its value closes at or above the top line, which each indicator reached historically near cycle tops. Thresholds: Pi Cycle cross (111DMA ≥ 2×350DMA), Mayer Multiple 2.4, AHR999 4, 2-Year MA ×5, Golden Ratio ×3 the 350-day MA, 200WMA rising 16% in 30 days, the top rainbow band, power-law resistance (98th percentile), issuance-only Puell Multiple 4 and the published upper growth curve. Price-only: on-chain signals such as MVRV, NUPL and RHODL are not included. Not financial advice: these pages describe what each indicator showed in past cycles and predict nothing.
Bull market peak signals FAQ
What are bull market peak signals?
Readings of cycle indicators that, in past Bitcoin cycles, came near the market top: the Pi Cycle Top cross, a Mayer Multiple above 2.4, a Puell Multiple above 4 and so on. This page checks each one against its threshold every day and counts how many are hit.
Is the bull market over when the signals are hit?
Not necessarily. Bitcoin has had only a few cycles, the thresholds were chosen with hindsight, and several signals did not fire at the November 2021 high. Many signals at once has meant an overheated market in the past; it does not date the top.
Why are MVRV, NUPL and other on-chain signals missing?
They need on-chain data (realised price, coin ages) that this site does not collect, so the checklist uses only indicators computed from daily closing prices. The Puell Multiple here counts block subsidy only, without fees.
What does the last hit date mean?
The latest day the indicator closed at or above its threshold in our price history. The rainbow and power-law bands are fitted on the whole history, so their past hits are judged against today's fit.
Where does the price data come from?
Daily closing prices (00:00 UTC) of Bitcoin from exchange public APIs: Binance spot BTCUSDT from 17 Aug 2017. Moving averages start once enough days of history have passed. The data refreshes every few hours, and today's close is the latest price so far. Each chart's data is free to download as CSV.
Is this a buy or sell signal?
No. These indicators describe how the price moved against its own averages in past cycles, and Bitcoin has had only a handful of cycles, so any pattern rests on very few examples. Nothing here is financial advice.